Will BTC Price Surge Above US$44,500? Insights from the Crypto Oracle

The BTC price is predicted to surge to US$44,500 if this particular crypto manages to sustain above the US$42,850 range, according to the Crypto Oracle.

This week, the crypto market leans towards optimism, anticipating that The Fed will maintain its interest rates during the FOMC on January 30-31. It is predicted that this won't have a significant impact on the crypto market. However, attention is directed towards indications of when The Fed plans to trim its interest rates.

"Technically, on Tuesday (30/1/2024) morning at 08:00 WIB, BTC moved to the US$43,200 level, rising above MA-20 and MA-50. Furthermore, if BTC can maintain above MA-50 or in the US$42,850 range, the potential is towards the US$44,500 resistance area and further to US$45,500. Meanwhile, if there's a breakdown below MA-50, the potential decline could reach the dynamic MA-20 support in the US$42,000 range, with the closest support at US$40,500," according to the Crypto Oracle in its official statement today.

The Crypto Oracle adds, however, that investors and traders need to remain cautious and keep abreast of market developments. It is crucial to conduct independent research and invest according to individual risk profiles.

BTC Price and Market Analysis

In an analysis conducted on Tuesday (30/1/2024) at 08:00 WIB, Bitcoin (BTC) displayed fluctuating movements throughout January before heading towards the close of the first monthly period of 2024 this week.

Starting the week with positive sentiment, BTC's price showed signs of recovery on Tuesday (30/1/2024), rising to US$43,200, marking a 2.13 percent increase in 24 hours and an 8.50 percent increase over the last seven days. To end January on a positive note, BTC needs to surpass the US$42,270 level.

The previous week, Bitcoin dropped below US$40,000, experiencing a 20 percent contraction, reaching US$38,600 on Tuesday (23/11/2023).

"This decline followed a spike to US$48,983 when the first Bitcoin Spot ETF traded in the US on January 11, 2024, following regulatory approval on January 10, 2024. However, towards the end of the week, Bitcoin recovered from MA-100, reaching MA-50 at US$42,840 on Sunday (28/1/2024)," clarified the Crypto Oracle.

The total market capitalization of crypto assets stands at US$1.612 trillion, strengthening by 2.34 percent in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) also experienced a 4.53 percent increase, reaching US$2,305 in the last 24 hours.

Several altcoins recorded significant gains in the last seven days. Manta Network (MANTA) surged by 52.84 percent, settling at US$3.77, Conflux (CFX) strengthened by 30.88 percent, moving in the US$0.238 range, and Solana (SOL) successfully climbed back above the US$100 level, noting a 19.70 percent increase over the last seven days.

Causes of Last Week's Bitcoin Decline

According to the Crypto Oracle, there are several reasons that pressured Bitcoin's price last week, categorized into four aspects. First, the sell-the-news and profit-taking actions. It was explained that investors took profits after the approval of the Bitcoin Spot ETF news. Accumulation had begun since BlackRock filed for the Bitcoin spot ETF in June 2023.

Second, the Sales by Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Grayscale investors sold over US$2 billion GBTC since its conversion to an ETF, including a US$1 billion stock sale by FTX. However, towards the end of the week, there was a slowdown in the outflow of GBTC ETF, followed by an increase in the inflow from other Bitcoin spot ETFs such as BlackRock and Fidelity.

Third, News of Bitcoin Sales by the US Government. The US government plans to sell around 2,930 Bitcoins worth US$117 million-US$130 million seized from Silk Road.

Fourth, Extension of SEC Decision. The SEC extended the decision period regarding BlackRock's application for the Ethereum spot ETF until March 10, 2024.

Bitcoin Market Sentiment This Week

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will commence its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday (30/1/2024) and Wednesday (31/1/2024).

"Investors are almost certain that the central bank will maintain interest rates stable in the range of 5.25 percent-5.50 percent. According to CME Group, there is a 97 percent chance that The Fed will not cut interest rates at this meeting and potentially will start cutting rates in the March or May 2024 meetings," said the Crypto Oracle.

Even the submission of a Bitcoin ETF in Hong Kong is providing positive sentiment, with the SFC accepting the first application for a Bitcoin ETF, and 10 other financial institutions actively preparing for their ETF launches. Hong Kong has the potential to become the first Asian country to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF, with hopes to launch the first Bitcoin spot ETF after the Chinese New Year on February 10.

Starting from January 29, Google allows ads for ETF products in the US, enabling BlackRock, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton to launch advertising campaigns for their Bitcoin spot ETFs. This move not only opens new opportunities for Bitcoin ETFs but also signifies the increasing recognition of crypto as a legitimate asset class.

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